June 13, 2025

The U.S.–Canada trade tensions have done more than spark debates about tariffs—they’ve thrown a wrench into one of the most reliable aspects of modern life: air travel. As political friction intensified, Canadians started rethinking their travel plans, airlines pivoted hard, and tourism patterns shifted dramatically. Here's how it all unfolded—and what it means for travelers and the aviation industry alike.

 

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Significant Drop in U.S.-Bound Flights from Canada

Ever since early 2025, there’s been a dramatic drop in Canadian travelers heading to the U.S. According to OAG and Hopper, bookings for U.S.-bound flights from Canada fell by more than 70% compared to the previous year. That drop forced airlines to slash more than 320,000 available seats through the fall, essentially shrinking cross-border travel capacity by over 3.5% at the peak of summer.

 

Airlines Are Scrambling to Adapt

Faced with fewer passengers and rising political uncertainty, Canadian airlines have been busy reshuffling their routes. Air Canada pulled back on popular U.S. destinations like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Orlando. WestJet not only suspended service to cities like Nashville but also began leaning into European routes, including Dublin and Edinburgh. Meanwhile, Porter Airlines doubled down on domestic travel, now dedicating more than 80% of its seats to Canadian routes. Even budget carriers like Flair Airlines have been scaling back, cancelling Vegas and Nashville services entirely.

 

Border Cities and Tourism Businesses Are Feeling It

The impact isn’t just in the skies—it’s hitting the ground hard, too. Duty-free shops at land border crossings have seen sales fall anywhere from 40% to 80%, especially in places like Buffalo, which depend heavily on Canadian visitors. In Florida, resorts and snowbird communities that rely on repeat business from Canadians have reported notable declines in long-term bookings. Even Nashville tour operators are feeling the pinch as fewer weekenders from Canada hop across the border.

 

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Travelers Are Changing Plans for More Than Just Financial Reasons

It’s not just about money—it’s about mood. The trade war has led to a more cautious, even frustrated, traveler. With new tariffs hitting Canadian-made goods like aluminum, lumber, and auto parts, many people are turning inward, rallying around “Buy Canadian” messaging and rethinking trips south of the border. There’s also a growing feeling of unease about being treated unfairly at the border, especially among younger travelers. In fact, this national shift in sentiment even prompted the creation of a Wikipedia page documenting the informal boycott of U.S. travel by Canadian citizens.

 

The Fallout for Airlines Has Been Costly

This shift in demand has real financial consequences. Air Canada recently lowered its full-year earnings forecast, citing reduced bookings on U.S. routes and rising operational costs due to tariffs. Analysts say the airline is now projecting between C$3.2 and C$3.6 billion in earnings, down from a previous high of C$3.8 billion. Aerospace groups have also raised concerns that tariffs are making it more expensive to maintain fleets, especially as the U.S. considers even more restrictions. That’s why multiple nations and the EU have publicly urged the U.S. to hold off on imposing new airplane tariffs.

 

So, What’s Next?

We Might See Airfare Shakeups and More Route Changes

With fewer people flying to the U.S., some routes are being quietly discontinued while others are offering deep discounts to fill seats. Airlines like WestJet are sending more aircraft to Europe instead, which could leave travelers with fewer options for quick cross-border escapes and possibly higher prices on the routes that remain.

 

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Canadian Destinations Are Getting a Boost

With the U.S. off the table for many, Canadians are rediscovering home. From the Rockies to the Maritimes, provincial tourism boards are ramping up local travel campaigns. Flights to destinations like Vancouver, Halifax, and St. John’s are seeing higher demand. Travelers are also increasingly opting for trips to Mexico and Europe instead, where the political climate feels more stable and the cultural appeal is fresh.

 

It’s Still a Waiting Game

The long-term impact of the trade war on aviation is still unfolding. Potential new tariffs—particularly those aimed at aerospace components—could add more strain to airlines already struggling with tight margins. If border tensions remain high, we may not see a full recovery in U.S.-bound travel for quite some time.

 

Canadian Officials Are Taking Steps

In the meantime, the federal government is trying to turn turbulence into opportunity. Under Minister Anita Anand, Transport Canada is investing in updated passenger protections, expanding airport infrastructure, and improving pre-clearance systems to support more robust domestic and international travel options that don’t rely so heavily on the U.S.

 

The ripple effects of a trade war extend far beyond policy meetings and economic headlines—they impact everyday decisions, like where people go for spring break or how airlines map out their next season. For Canada, this moment has become a reckoning for its air travel ecosystem. And whether the skies get smoother or bumpier from here depends on what happens next in the halls of diplomacy—and in the minds of Canadian travelers.